Geopolitical Risk Audit

Case Study

Client:

An International Charity

Issue

The Company needed to understand the potential evolution of the political situation in a Latin American country and the impact this might have on its operations in the country and worldwide.

Solution

Together with senior operational staff from the client company, Blue Hackle mapped several different scenarios and their likely impact on the companys operations, in the country, the region and worldwide.

The client has integrated the analysis into its strategic decision making and drawn up long term response plans. The analysis has also convinced the board of the financial and political validity of a continuing investment in the country and has assisted in the successful renegotiation of contracts with the government.

An audit of the geopolitical risks implied by the international (and national) operations of the client. This audit:

  • Identifies the different types and categories of risks the client is running and the interconnections and relations between them;
  • Facilitates a better understanding of which of the clients international operations imply the highest level of risk;
  • Clarifies the different types of risks, how they are related and how they impact on the operations and reputation of the client.
  • Prioritises the risks according to gravity, probability and impact on the operations of the client.
  • Serves as a key element in any strategy to manage geopolitical risk;

Scenario Building

Scenario building is a key exercise in:

  • Identifying the geopolitical risks that are relevant to company operations;
  • Understand how those risks could impact on them;
  • Integrating the analysis into strategic decision making.
  • In a workshop, outside experts and facilitators from Blue Hackle help company directors identify the factors and risks most relevant to their company.

On this basis, the facilitators assist the directors to create plausible scenarios for the future. At least four scenarios are devised of which one is a surprise scenario. All are thought improbable but plausible;

The companies strategies are then gamed across the scenarios.

The scenario building approach:

  • Is tailored to the specific realities of company or sector;
  • Is based on executives own implicit knowledge;
  • Allows executives to explore future possibilities;
  • Enables executives to develop and test robust strategies across a range of scenarios;
  • Improves executives ability to understand where they are in changing world. This offers a distinct competitive advantage in a crisis;
  • Tests strategic or policy decisions and explores  "what if " scenarios in a benign environment;  
  • Integrates the analysis within the decision/policy making process.


3. Stakeholder Audits

Stakeholders are all actors who can affect the operations of a company. They can include customers, suppliers, unions, governments, neighbours, NGOs, political parties, journalists and civic groups. They are key in any strategy to manage or minimise geopolitical risk.

The stakeholder audit:

  • Identifies the different types and categories of stakeholders which affect the clients international (and national) operations;
  • Shows the relations and interconnections between these stakeholders;
  • Shows the impacts, positive and negative, which the different stakeholders have on the different geopolitical risks and the clients reputation;
  • Prioritises the stakeholders according to their importance in increasing or reducing the risks to the operations and reputation of the client;
  • Identifies which stakeholders can be cultivated and which may need to be marginalized.
  • Allows the clients executives to understand which are the national and international actors which most affect their operations;
  • Identifies the relations between these actors, and which of them could collaborate, whether in favour or against the interests of the client;
  • Serves, together with the geopolitical risk audit, as a key element in any strategy for managing or minimising the clients geopolitical risks.

4. Executive Training in Business Diplomacy

Training course for executives who are responsible for international business or who are destined for overseas offices. The aim of the course is that the executives be capable of implementing effectively a strategy for the management and/or reduction of geopolitical risk.

The course includes the following elements:

  • Techniques and approaches to the analysis of geopolitical risk;
  • The identification of stakeholders;
  • Different approaches to the cultivation of different types of stakeholders;
  • Working with the international/foreign press;
  • International negotiating techniques;
  • Political and social culture of specific countries (specified by the client);
  • Being a business diplomat.

The length/frequency of the course is tailor-made to the needs of the client and its executives.

The course counts on the participation of international experts on the countries specified by the client


 

5. Design and Implementation of a Geopolitical Risk Strategy

Consultancy for senior management on the design and implementation of a strategy for the management and reduction of geopolitical risk. The strategy is based on the prior audits of risks and stakeholders which enable the identification and prioritization of the geopolitical risks, the identification of the key stakeholders, and the identification of which stakeholders can be cultivated and which may need to be marginalized. The strategy puts into effect the implications of these audits.

The strategy is centred on the construction for the client of a network of appropriate relationships with the key stakeholders. This network provides both timely information on potential risks and a framework in which we can help the client develop pro-active programmes with stakeholders to reduce its vulnerabilities. The geopolitical risk strategy is integrated in the strategic decision making procedures of the client.

Blue Hackle will also monitor and advise on the implementation of the strategy, mentoring senior management and advising on training and other requirements for other staff.

 

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